Greggs: H1 2025 Profit Warning (Quick Note)

Company Update (GRG LN) (Buy): An expected EBIT decline in FY25 is unsurprising and likely one-off; June was impacted by a heatwave.

Greggs released a profit warning for H1 2025 this morning (July 2); shares are down 14%, at ~1,710p, as of 09:05 U.K. time, only a few percentage points higher than their 52-week low of 1,657p:

Greggs Share Price (Last 1 Year)

Source: Google Finance (02-Jul-25).

We initiated our Buy rating on Greggs in January and added it as a small position to our “Select 15” model portfolio in the same month. We also hold Greggs shares in real life. At 1,710p, shares have lost ~16% since our initiation (after dividends). We added modestly to our Greggs holding this morning.

The main news is Greggs now explicitly guides for a profit decline in 2025. However, the reasons for this are unsurprising and likely one-off; we believe shares are at ~13.5x 2025 EPS and can close to double in by 2028 year-end.

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