Greggs: Down 12% Since Update Last Month (Quick Note)

Company Update (GRG LN) (Buy): Sales growth has improved, but shares seem depressed by macro “noises”.

We take a quick look at Greggs after shares have fallen by 12.5% since its most recent peak on May 20, when the company released a trading update prior to its AGM the next day, to a third below their level a year ago:

Greggs Share Price (Last 1 Year)

Source: Google Finance (23-Jun-25).

We initiated our Buy rating on Greggs in January and added it as a small position to our “Select 15” model portfolio in the same month. We last wrote about Greggs in detail in March, following FY24 results that sent shares falling 14% at one point; since then, share first staged a rebound of 20.1% (by May 20) but thereafter lost most of that gain.

The trading update was positive (shares rose 9.2% that day), and the main news since then have been surprises in U.K. inflation and retail sales data in May, and Israeli and U.S. air strikes on Iran. We do not believe either news affects our investment case, and continue to find shares attractive with their ~14x P/E and potential 90% return by 2028 year-end.

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