Croda: Likely Beneficiary if Oil Prices Spike Further (Quick Note)

Company Update (CRDA LN) (Buy): Recovery was on track in Q1, and may even benefit if Middle East conflicts escalate.

We believe that the cyclical recovery at Croda is continuing and that, in the event that conflicts in the Middle East were to escalate further, the company’s earnings may stand to benefit. Croda shares closed up 3.0% today (June 24) on news of a ceasefire between Israel and Iran, but are 25% lower than a year ago:

Croda Share Price (Last 1 Year)

Source: Google Finance (24-Jun-25).

Croda has been part of our “Select 15” model portfolio as a small position since January, and we also hold the stock in real life. The position currently shows a 7.0% loss (in Pounds, after dividends) in our model portfolio. We last published research on Croda in February, following full-year 2024 results, and the share price has fallen by 7.3% since.

Croda’s Q1 update on April 23 was positive, and its 2021-22 track record showed that inflation shock and supply chain disruptions can be a positive for earnings. Shares seem cheap on ~21x 2025 expected EPS.

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