Introduction
This “Librarian Capital’s Monthly Letter” tracks our “Select 15” model portfolio, which we have run since the start of 2023. The portfolio showcases our most-preferred stocks and quantify our view of the relative attractiveness of each, and closely resembles how we manage capital in real life, including more than 80% of my personal assets.
“Select 15” fell 0.6% in February, reducing our year-to-date gain to +1.4%, behind our benchmark MSCI World, which rose 0.8% in February and had a year-to-date gain of 3.0% as of month-end:
These figures preceded the war in Iran, which began with U.S. and Israeli air strikes on February 28, after the last trading day for the month. Subsequently, both the market indices and our portfolio have been negatively impacted.
“Select 15” has done slightly better than MSCI World during March 1-20, falling 6.0% compared to the index falling 6.8%. As of March 20 close, our portfolio was down 4.7% year-to-date, compared to the index being down 4.0%.
Beginning with a notional $1m at the start of 2023, the model portfolio now stands at $1.55m:
Given the unusual market conditions, this letter will again take a slightly different form than usual, and will consist of:
A review of our portfolio performance year-to-date, particularly during the period since the outbreak of war
A discussion of our approach, including our positioning in relation to ongoing geopolitical uncertainties
Portfolio overview, including a discussion of the likely impact on each stock in the event a recession were to follow
A discussion of why the current conflict has actually made us more optimistic about the long term
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