Diageo: Recovery Potential Remains After FY21 Rebound, 2.1% Dividend Yield

(Preview) Company Update (DGE LN) (Buy)

Summary

• While Diageo shares have returned 21.9% year-to-date as the COVID situation continues to improve, they are still attractive in our view.

• A strong year-on-year rebound in FY21 (ending June) showed Diageo has resumed its long-term growth trajectory.

• Much recovery potential remains, as Travel Retail, the on-trade, and some regions were still disrupted; margin will rise when sales recover.

• FY22 outlook is for further sales growth and margin expansion; the earnings risk from China is limited by Diageo's global diversification.

• With shares at 3,481.0p, we expect a total return of 41% (9.9% annualized) by June 2025. The Dividend Yield is 2.1%. Buy.

Introduction

We review our investment case on Diageo PLC based on FY21 results and other recent developments.

We believe Diageo has resumed its long-term growth trajectory, significant recovery potential remains after FY21, and the stock could deliver a 10% annualized return (including a 2.1% Dividend Yield) by June 2025.

You can read the full arti…