Comcast: Shares Climbing Back After Q1 2022 Results

(Preview) Company Update (CMCSA US) (Buy)

Summary

• Comcast shares have risen 11% since the end of April, just after Q1 results, but remain 23% lower than a year ago.

• Group EBITDA grew 8.8% in Q1, driven by the Cable business, but NBC Universal and Sky EBITDA are still much lower than in 2019.

• Cable growth has decelerated due to temporary macro headwinds; Comcast still grows in all local markets regardless of competition.

• Theme Parks and Sky are rebounding strongly; Media (including Peacock) is not a proven success but a small part of the group.

• With shares at $44.16, we expect a total return of 74% (17.3% annualized) by 2025 year-end. The Dividend Yield is 2.4%. Buy.

Introduction

We review our investment case on Comcast Corporation. Comcast stock has now risen more than 11% since the end of April, just after Q1 2022 results (on April 28), but they remain 23% lower than a year ago.

We initiated our Buy rating on CMCSA shares in January 2020. After first rising 38% to $61.80 by September 2021, shares have now fallen back to slightly bel…